Ciertamente Cachondo tiene razón, con el cuento ese de que suba el consumo, de que no hay que asustar a la gente, entre unos y otros nos venden la moto y cuando nos demos cuenta no nos va a quedar ni el sillín.
Artículo en el ft esta semana. Aparte de los problemas que todos más o menos repiten, interesante el comentario sobre la leve corrección en nuestro mercado inmobiliario, en comparación con el de otros paises.
Spain
Published: December 7 2009 09:38 | Last updated: December 7 2009 15:47
A property boom fed by cheap money, much conspicuous consumption by British soccer stars who bought themselves a spot in the sun, and all without any apparent exchange rate risk. The description is of Dubai. It could just as well be Spain.
The eurozone’s fourth biggest economy has already suffered considerable pain during the financial crisis. Almost a fifth of Spaniards are unemployed. The country is flirting with deflation. The economy is still shrinking. Sadly, it could shrink even more. This is also true of other so-called peripheral European economies, such as Ireland and Greece, which also have fragile public finances. But Spain’s economy is around five times their size. Its problems are therefore much bigger.
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, the prime minister, has worked to soften the blow. His
Plan España €8bn stimulus package, equivalent to 2.3 per cent of gross domestic product, has beautified parks here and improved infrastructure there. Like government spending elsewhere, it has probably helped prevent social unrest. It may also have helped stop problems from emerging in the banking sector: Spain’s house price correction has been a fraction of that in similarly frothy markets such as Ireland or the UK. But by boosting generous social security provisions and an already bloated construction sector, it has also made Spain less competitive.
Spanish wages are still growing at a 4 per cent annual clip. Even after taking into account the terrible rise in unemployment, from below 8 per cent in 2007, unit labour costs are rising too – by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter. Spain can’t devalue to restore lost competitiveness. Indeed, since joining the euro its real exchange rate has appreciated by more than any of its European peers – bar Ireland. But Irish wages are now falling by about 1 per cent. Next year, the Dublin-based Economic and Social Research Institute reckons wages will fall by 2.5 per cent.
Ireland, therefore, is taking the pain. Once the fiscal anaesthetic of
Plan España wears off, Spanish labour will have to as well. A sharp fall in the euro might again defer their suffering until
mañana. But that’s hardly a strategy, it’s a lottery.
Artículo en el ft, sobre el cambio de previsión de S&P.
S&P revises Spain’s outlook to negative
By Victor Mallet in Madrid
Published: December 9 2009 16:45 | Last updated: December 9 2009 16:45
Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency, on Wednesday turned pessimistic on the Spanish economy in the second blow this week to the reputations of the eurozone’s weaker members.
S&P, which had stripped Spain of its triple-A sovereign credit rating in January, affirmed the country’s current ratings but revised the outlook to “negative” from “stable”, blaming the likelihood of more prolonged economic weakness and greater deterioration of public finances than previously expected.
Greece was downgraded by Fitch, another ratings agency, on Tuesday, and was also warned by S&P of a possible downgrade.
The S&P statement on Spain, which immediately unsettled global financial markets, was notable for strong if indirect criticism of the Spanish government’s failure to deal with its fast-growing budget deficit.
“Reducing Spain’s sizeable fiscal and economic imbalances requires strong policy actions, which have not yet materialised,” S&P said.
Spain entered the global economic crisis in a strong position, with the budget in surplus and total government debt amounting to less than 40 per cent of gross domestic product. But budget deficits are expected to reach 10 per cent of GDP from this year, while the debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast by S&P to reach 67 per cent in 2010 – still only about half the level for Greece.
The Spanish Socialist government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, prime minister, has spent at least €8bn on emergency job creation programmes over the past year and has been reluctant to raise tax rates too steeply for fear of stifling a possible economic recovery, while tax revenues have plunged as a result of the crisis.
“We now believe that Spain will experience a more pronounced and persistent deterioration in its public finances and a more prolonged period of economic weakness versus its peers … with trend GDP growth below 1 per cent annually,” S&P said.
Spain’s current S&P ratings are AA+ for long-term and A-1+ for short-term debt, and the negative outlook means there is a risk of a downgrade within two years without “more aggressive” action by the government.
Responding to the S&P move, the finance ministry in Madrid insisted it was confident of meeting the target set by the European Union for the Spain’s budget deficit, which is for a reduction below 3 per cent of GDP by 2013.
The Spanish economy has not declined as steeply as the European average, but it has been slower than France and Germany to emerge from the recession provoked by the crisis. Citigroup says it expects Spain’s quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to turn positive in the current quarter, but predicts weak growth throughout 2010 and 2011.
Problems for Spain cited by S&P include the high level of private sector debt – at 177 per cent of GDP this year – the inflexible labour market and deflationary pressures that could make it harder to reduce the budget deficit.
Freak
Forero del todo a cien
Asiduo
Novato de mierda
Veterano
Frikazo
