Aunque aquí en España sigamos a lo nuestro, preparando una manifestación contra los empresarios, porque ya está bien que esa gente no se quiera arriesgar con las condiciones tan favorables que hay para crear empleo. En el extranjero hay movimientos significativos, que son positivos y que de una manera u otra nos van a afectar.
Punto 1.
En Alemania ha habido un aviso claro sobre las medidas que están provocando una nueva burbuja en los mercados financieros. Aviso también sobre el reparto de beneficios en los bancos por parte de Trichet, veremos qué caso le hacen.
https://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4ec41a1a-d616-11de-b80f-00144feabdc0.html
Germany’s new finance minister has echoed
Chinese warnings about the growing threat of fresh global asset price bubbles, fuelled by
low US interest rates and a weak dollar. Wolfgang Schäuble’s comments highlight official concern in Europe that the risk of further financial market turbulence has been exacerbated by the exceptional steps taken by
central banks and governments to combat the crisis.
Last weekend,
Liu Mingkang, China’s banking regulator, criticised the US Federal Reserve for fuelling the “
dollar carry-trade”, in which investors borrow dollars at ultra-low interest rates and invest in higher-yielding assets abroad.
Speaking at a banking conference in Frankfurt on Friday, Mr Schäuble said it would be “naive” to assume the next asset price bubble would take the same guise as the last. He said: “More likely today is a scenario in which excess liquidity globally creates a new [sort of] asset market bubble.” He added: “That low interest rate currencies such as the US dollar are increasingly being used as a basis for currency carry trades should give pause for thought. If there was a sudden reversal in this business, markets would be threatened with enormous turbulence, including in foreign exchange markets.”
Punto 2.
En los EEUU se preparan para acometer la contención de su enorme déficit público.
https://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ee761ae2-d443-11de-990c-00144feabdc0.html
US President Barack Obama warned that the US economy could head into a “
double-dip recession” unless urgent steps were taken to rein in mounting public debt. The US president’s remarks – in
an interview with Fox News in Beijing on Wednesday, towards the end of his
eight-day tour of Asia – marked his strongest language yet on the necessity of putting public finances back on a sound footing.
“It is important though to recognise if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, that at some point, people could lose confidence in the US economy in a double-dip recession,” said Mr Obama.
A
10.6 per cent plunge in housing starts in October – led by collapse in the apartment business – highlighted the dilemma facing him as he seeks to tackle the
deficit without undermining a fragile economy. “It’s about as hard of a play as there is,” Mr Obama said, adding that his team was trying to set up a “pathway long term for deficit reduction” without pulling a lot of money out of the economy in the short term via tax rises or spending cuts.
The mood in the US has already swung in favour of deficit reduction, with Republicans attacking Democrats’ plans for more spending to
support jobs. Washington-based analysts said the president was probably trying to prepare public opinion for a tough budget in February – while leaving open some space for measures to reduce unemployment,
now at 10.2 per cent.
“I have no doubt that the White House is going to produce a tough budget,” said Maya MacGuineas, director of the Peterson-Pew commission on budget reform. “The question is whether they are going to spend political capital and push their budget in Congress.”
The timing of Mr Obama’s remarks, which came at the end of his
three-day trip to China, is likely to fuel speculation that his Chinese hosts delivered stern private warnings about the consequences of continuing high US budget deficits. China, the biggest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds, has become increasingly vocal in its fears on the value of its dollar assets.
White House officials say the US fiscal situation had no impact on
Obama’s interactions in Beijing, even though some observers presented his trip as that of a debtor visiting his banker. “He pulled no punches,” said Mike Froman, a senior national security adviser. A day earlier, White House budget chief Peter Orszag said the US had to bring down its deficit to about 3 per cent of gross domestic product within six years – a reduction of about one percentage point of GDP based on the administration’s current estimates.
Punto 3.
En Europa se prepara una nueva normativa regulatoria, con mayores exigencias de capital para el sector bancario.
https://www.lacartadelabolsa.com/in..._tsunami_regulatorio_europeo_con_mayores_exi/
La intención sería que los bancos no salgan de rositas de esta crisis, y preparar el sector para poder operar en entornos muy desfavorables. Que no vayan a tope en el buen tiempo, para que los pringados tengamos que pagarles el refugio cuando empiece a llover.