That Erdoğan is confident he holds all the cards in the negotiation with the EU is evident from the diplomatic record of a meeting in November with EU leaders in which the president dismissed the offer of €3bn, threatened to put thousands of refugees on busses to Europe from Turkey and warned that 15,000 migrants could wash up dead on Greek shores.
The four-page record of a meeting between Erdoğan and Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk, the presidents of the European commission and the European council, in the Turkish resort of Antalya in November, paints a picture of an EU prostrate before a Turkish leader who treats their offers, pleas, and arguments with derision.
“We really want a deal with you,” Tusk told Erdoğan, according to the leak of the note to the Greek financial media, euro2day.gr. “So how will you deal with refugees if you don’t get a deal? Kill the refugees?” Erdoğan responded.
He asked whether the EU was offering Turkey €3bn a year, or the same figure over two years. When told the latter, he said: “We can open the doors to Greece and Bulgaria anytime and put the refugees on buses.”
Merkel has since confirmed that the €3bn is a down payment for Turkey with more money to follow. European commission spokeswoman Mina Andreeva said on Monday that the €3bn, only agreed finally last week by the EU, was merely an “initial” payment.